Tropical Storm Gustav should enter Gulf on Saturday

The last reported position (11 AM EDT) was at 18.8N, 74.0W, and maximum sustained winds were estimated near 60 mph (50kt). This puts the storm approximately 110 miles west of Port au Prince, Haiti, and about 125 miles southeast of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Minimum central pressure was estimated at 997mb, and since the last advisory, forward speed has increased to 5mph toward the west-northwest.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their latest advisory at 11 AM EDT. The advisory cites high-resolution satellite imagery which suggest that the Gustav has begun the process of reorganization after his prolonged interaction with the island of Haiti. Current guidance suggests that Gustav will cross Cuba west of the city Pinar L Rio, and will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico sometime Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

The major factor currently influencing Gustav's course is a high pressure system currently centered off the western coast of the Florida peninsula. That high is forecast to weaken by day 3 of the forecast period, allowing Gustav to move from his current WNW track to a northwestern track.

The last set of model runs shifted east slightly, and so the NHC's five-day forecast also shifted slightly to the east. The current five-day forecast cone currently encompasses the area from the Texas-Louisiana border to Tampa, Florida.