Anatomy of a surprise storm: How Claudette appeared seemingly out of nowhere

How is it possible Emerald Coast residents could go to bed Saturday night thinking Sunday would be just another summer day only to find a tropical storm knocking on their door the next morning?

Well, it’s simple – and complicated.

Don Shepherd, senior forecaster at the Mobile office of the National Weather Service, said weathermen had been expecting a wet weekend as far back as Tuesday as a tropical wave headed west through the Florida Straits to a rendezvous with the Gulf of Mexico.

“We thought it would bring some rain and gusty winds,” he said.

What they didn’t expect, and what computer models still aren’t showing, is that a “closed low” would form along the axis of the wave.

“Atmospheric conditions were just right for a little low to form,” Shepherd explained. That low “liked where it was sitting and spun up pretty quickly.”

Waters over the northeast Gulf of Mexico are well above the minimum necessary for fueling a tropical storm, and wind shear is only 5-10 knots.

Shepherd said that while Claudette was a surprise it wasn’t totally unexpected.

“Sometimes these things happen.”

He added Claudette will likely go inland in Bay County around 7 or 8 p.m. Sunday. Most of the heavy weather, he said, was to the east and southeast of the center, though Okaloosa County could see wind gusts of 30, maybe 40 mph and periods of heavy rain.