Weatherman: Local hurricane season 'effectively' over

Though the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, the Eglin Air Force Base Weather Squadron is confident the threat to the Panhandle region has sharply declined.

The squadron has even stopped issuing regular tropical updates.

Upper level winds across the Gulf of Mexico began resembling those expected in late October or November as early as mid-September with strong, persistent wind shear, according to the final regular tropical update of the 2008 hurricane season issued by Richard Henning, meteorologist with the 46th Weather Squadron.

"This has effectively shut the door about a month early on any more hurricane activity that might threaten the Panhandle," Henning said in the update.

"As long as these wind shear conditions persist, and all available computer model projections show they will, there is no viable remaining threat to the Panhandle from this hurricane season."

Though conditions are not warranting additional tropical updates, Lois Walsh, Eglin Air Force Base spokeswoman, said the weather squadron continues to monitor weather 24 hours a day, seven days a week to maintain safety for flying missions and base visitors and personnel.

"Right now unless conditions warrant daily notification, we will stop those e-mails," Walsh said. "But, the weather squadron does brief weather conditions weekly and they also do updated briefings as conditions warrant."

Though the likelihood of the Panhandle being hit by another hurricane this season has been reduced, the season has not ended, according to Gary Beeler, meteorologist with the National Weather Service out of Mobile, Ala.

While conditions in the northern Gulf of Mexico are favorable, the southern portion of the gulf can continue to see hostile weather late into the season. In fact, Tropical Storm Marco formed in the southern gulf on Monday and was expected to move inland over Mexico on Tuesday.

"Even into November the gulf is still fairly warm and tropical systems can still develop in that area," Beeler said.

Responding to the final tropical update out of Eglin, Beeler stated, "In all likelihood, he's probably right," referring to Henning.

Beeler added that the Pensacola area is 9.76 inches below normal rainfall for the year and while October is historically the driest month of the year, the area can expect some scattered showers beginning as early as Tuesday evening.