As 'No. 1 dollar weekend' hits Destin, tourism forecast remains sunny

As the Memorial Day weekend arrives, how much will a recent jump in gas prices and some iffy weather forecasts affect the Emerald coast?

"This is the biggest weekend of the year, the No. 1 dollar weekend," said Bob Bonezzi, whose Bonezzi Enterprises is based in Destin.  He is the managing partner in three night clubs seven restaurants, among them several Crab Trap locations and the recently re-opened Night Town club.

"I think it's going to be a little like Christmas morning, and you might not get 15 dollars from grandma, but you still get 10," Bonezzi added.

"There's still people cooped up in Nashville who will say, 'Hey, let's go to the beach.' … The bad weather is hit and miss, but when it's all said and done, people will have a smile on their face by Tuesday."

In recent weeks, gas prices have made their big jump of the year. Unleaded regular has gone from around $2 a gallon to the $2.30s and in some cases the $2.40s. This is less than five weeks since the Energy Information Administration said regular-grade gasoline is expected to average $2.23 a gallon during the summer driving season. That prediction included a peak of more than $2.30 a gallon in late summer.

"Apparently that forecast was a bit too conservative," said Greg Laskoski from AAA Auto Club South in Tampa. "If we reconsider that peak price, it would  be $2.50 to $3 dollars."

Jim Smith, president and CEO of the Florida Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association, blamed the jump on oil market speculators.

"There's NO reason in the world for it to go there," Smith said emphatically. "We've got the highest inventory levels in history  and demand continues to be down."

Even though Smith said retailers in his trade group  are still 7 to 10 percent down in sales from this time last year, the average price at that time was more than  $3.50 and headed toward $4 a gallon.

"We'll see people traveling," he said.

Those who cater to tourists along the Emerald Coast appear to agree.

"Compared to last year we're running about the same," said Vicki Warner from ResortQuest. "But it's different right now than every other year, because our phones are ringing off the hook this close to the holiday weekend. And I think we'll see a lot of walk-ins."

ResortQuest has about 3,000 condominiums, cottages and private homes in its Northwest Florida. Some of its specials this year include getting Memorial Day free with a three-day stay.

And Warner says there are even some new wrinkles created by the challenging economic conditions.

"The same customer is calling back and attempting to do some negotiating, so we can feel like we're in a bidding war," Warner said. "But these days I don't think consumers are thinking so much weather or gas as they are about job security."

Even with last year's steadily climbing gas prices, bed taxes collected by local counties were hardly affected.

For May 2008, Okaloosa was up $271,938, Santa Rosa was down $439 and Walton was up $210,525. Those numbers come from the Web site belonging to the Haas Center at the University of West Florida.

Checking local hotels and resorts produced the following results:

Hampton Inn on Okaloosa Island said its 100 rooms were nearly sold out for Saturday and Sunday.

Hilton Sandestin said its 600 rooms would be sold out for the weekend. Hilton has been benefiting from annual gatherings by Conference USA, the Sun Belt Conference and the Southeastern Conference, as well as a group of osteopathic doctors from Mississippi.

There were some weather cancellations, but those rooms were being taken almost immediately by others.

Ramada Plaza Beach Resort said it anticipated a weekend sellout fort its 355 rooms, although people were once again waiting this year, making more reservations later in the week.

Chan Cox of Chan's Wine World owns stores in Destin, Miramar Beach and Sandestin. He will soon open others in Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. Cox got his start as an Emerald Coast  restaurant owner in the early 1980s.

"I'm real encouraged by what I see with our business," Cox said Wednesday. "There seems to be lot people in town and we seem to be getting an early start. Usually there's a lull between Spring Break and Memorial Day, but the lull hasn't been that dramatic this year. I see a   build-up earlier this year. … I hope it comes true this weekend."

Chris Sehman, whose Helen Back Café on Okaloosa Island will be in the June Esquire magazine as one of  the "Best Bars in America," kept his prediction to a single thought.

"As long as it's pretty on Thursday, that's what matters the most," Sehman said.