Miami Dolphins playoffs: What are the latest odds? Is win-out required?

Joe Schad
Palm Beach Post
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa celebrates his  fourth-quarter touchdown run against the Patriots Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium.

If the Dolphins win at Las Vegas on Saturday, and at Buffalo the following Sunday, they'll qualify for the NFL playoffs with an 11-5 record.

It may be that simple. Lose a game, and it's not.

Is there any path into the playoffs without road wins to conclude the season? Well, yes, but it seems quite unlikely.

Then again, the Jets beat the Rams on Sunday. So — we're saying there's a chance.

With two weeks to play, here are the current playoff odds of the contending AFC teams, according to

Chiefs (13-1): Qualified

Bills (11-3): Qualified

Steelers (11-2): Qualified

Colts (10-4): 91 percent

Titans (10-4): 98 percent

Browns (10-4): 92 percent

Ravens (9-5): 89 percent

Dolphins (9-5): 31 percent

The reason Miami is given such long odds is that Buffalo will be a reasonably big home favorite against the Dolphins on Jan. 3. We can guess perhaps five or six points.

No computer can account for if the Bills may be resting some players if their playoff position is locked, or if their players may not have quite the same motivation as Miami's.

Remember, in the second-to-last week of 2016, Miami won at Buffalo to earn the franchise its first playoff appearance since 2008.

It was cold then. It will likely be cold this January.

The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points at Las Vegas on Saturday at 8:15 p.m.

More:5 Instant Takeaways: Dolphins overpower Patriots, make AFC East statement

Dolphins defensive end Christian Wilkins (94) tackles New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (26) during the first quarter of Sunday's 22-12 Dolphins win.

The Raiders have lost four of five, just fired their defensive coordinator and aren't sure if quarterback Derek Carr (groin) will be able to start.

Miami, meanwhile, could get some combination of DeVante Parker, Ereck Flowers, Jakeem Grant and/or Mike Gesicki back from injuries. They all missed Sunday's 22-12 victory against the Patriots.

The Dolphins are already guaranteed their second winning season since 2008. But there is more to play for.

If the Dolphins were to lose one of the final two games, could they still get in?

Well, Miami would qualify if the Ravens, Colts or Browns lose two games. But each of them face at least one woeful opponent in the final two weeks.

It is also possible Miami could get in if Baltimore loses at Cincinnati and Miami splits. But the Ravens losing to the Bengals with a potential playoff spot on the line?

Baltimore: vs. Giants (5-9); at Bengals (2-10-1)

Indianapolis: at Steelers (11-2); vs. Jaguars (1-13)

Cleveland: at Jets (1-13); vs. Steelers (11-2)

More:Miami Dolphins' Salvon Ahmed breaks out with 122 yards

It's hard to imagine the Jaguars or Jets winning another game, but we may suggest the Browns the most likely of the three above teams to choke away a playoff berth.

Still, it's highly unlikely.

As for the Dolphins, they're 1-7 in their last eight trips to Buffalo, dating back to 2012.

But this is a new team, with new players. A new coach. And a new confidence. There is every reason to believe they would be competitive with an entire season on the line.

For the record, no computer is entirely sold on Miami's chances at the moment.

The New York Times sees Miami's odds at 48 percent. Football Outsiders suggests Miami's current odds are 42 percent.